Issued at 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 151434 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 800 AM MST Sun Jun 15 2025 Dalila's satellite appearance has degraded since the previous advisory. Cloud tops have been warming, and what convection remains is displaced to the southwest. First-light visible imagery showed that the system has decoupled with the low-level center exposed due to moderate northeasterly wind shear. Given the current satellite presentation, subjective and objective intensity estimates have started to drop-off, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this advisory. Dalila is moving towards the west-northwest, at an estimated 295/8 kt. As Dalila continues to weaken and becomes a shallower vortex, a turn towards the west is expected within the low-level wind flow. The current NHC track forecast is similar to the previous, near the consensus aids. The storm will continue to weaken today within a cooler SSTs and a drier, more stable environment. Dalila is already struggling to produce convection and should become a post-tropical cyclone later tonight. The latest intensity forecast shows steady weakening and the system dissipating in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.2N 107.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 18.3N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 16/1200Z 18.3N 110.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 18.2N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
