Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
102 WTPZ42 KNHC 011439 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072025 500 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025 Deep convection in the storm continues to pulse, though it is mostly concentrated in the southern and eastern quadrants. An AMSR2 pass from 0927 UTC showed a large curved band wrapping around much of the circulation. Subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB both gave Gil a T3.5/55 kt. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this cycle based on these estimates. An ASCAT pass over the storm is expected later today which should help update the wind radii estimates. Gil is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt along the southern side of a subtropical ridge to its north. This general motion should continue for the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, the weakened storm should turn more westward in the low-level flow. Minor adjustments have been made to the latest track forecast which lies slightly south of the previous prediction. Gil only has a short window of about 12 h to strengthen. Thereafter, the storm is expected to cross over cooler sea surface temperatures. By day 2, the vertical wind shear is expected to increase accompanied by falling mid-level humidities. These factors will gradually weaken the cyclone, which is now expected to become post-tropical by 60 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast still expects Gil to strengthen into a hurricane later today, however this prediction lies on the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.3N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 16.1N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 20.3N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 21.4N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 04/1200Z 22.1N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci
