Issued at 800 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 091440 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 AM MST Sat Aug 09 2025 Ivo is being affected by moderate northeasterly shear, with its low-level center near the northern edge of the deep convection. Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are 3.5/55 kt and 3.0/45 kt, respectively, while objective numbers from UW-CIMSS range from 35-55 kt. Ivo's intensity is held at 50 kt, leaning toward the blend of CI numbers. The cyclone is expected to reach sub-26 degree Celsius waters in 12-24 hours, while at the same time the environment becomes more stable and more convergent aloft. As a result, steady weakening is anticipated, and Ivo is forecast to become post-tropical in about 36 hours when the environment becomes too hostile to support organized deep convection. The remnant low will last for a few more days after that, likely opening up into a trough by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Ivo's position was adjusted a bit north based on recent data, which ended up shifting the entire forecast track in that direction as well. Still, the track models are tightly clustered and in good agreement that Ivo will move generally west-northwestward and then westward, steered by low- to mid-level ridging to the north. The NHC track forecast is relatively close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 21.0N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 21.4N 113.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 21.9N 115.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 22.4N 117.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 11/1200Z 22.6N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0000Z 22.7N 121.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1200Z 22.6N 124.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
