Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025
617 WTPZ44 KNHC 101435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Ivo is maintaining a small cluster of deep convection, near and to the south of the low-level center. Dvorak CI numbers of 2.5 from TAFB and SAB and objective estimates from UW-CIMSS support holding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory. The cyclone is moving over cooler waters and in a more stable environment, while also contending with moderate northeasterly shear, and weakening is therefore forecast during the next couple of days. Ivo should lose all its convection and become a remnant low by 24 hours, and global models show dissipation into a surface trough in 60 hours. The initial motion is a bit faster toward the west-northwest (290/9 kt). Low- to mid-level ridging to the north should keep Ivo on a westward to west-northwestward trajectory at a fairly steady speed during the next couple of days. The NHC forecast is well within the tightly packed guidance envelope, and no significant changes were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 21.9N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 23.0N 119.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 23.2N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 23.2N 124.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
