Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 081436 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092025 800 AM MST Fri Aug 08 2025 Ivo's satellite presentation hasn't changed much since the last advisory. The center appears to be embedded beneath the northern side of the Central Dense Overcast, with one small convective band forming on the northwestern side of the circulation. The Dvorak estimate from TAFB increased to T3.5/55 kt, however the SAB estimate and all objective guidance is much lower. Therefore, the current intensity is held at 50 kt. Ivo is slowing down and now has a west-northwestward initial motion at 295/14 kt. Strong mid-level ridging to the north is expected to be the main driver for the entirety of the forecast, keeping Ivo on a westward or west-northwestward trajectory but at a slower forward speed. No significant changes were made to the official track forecast. The more complicated part of the forecast is the intensity. Ivo is expected to remain over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius and in a moist environment with divergence aloft for the next 24 hours or so. Because of that, the NHC intensity forecast continues to show some strengthening through tonight. The forecast no longer explicitly shows Ivo becoming a hurricane, but that is still a small possibility, especially if Ivo is currently stronger than is being estimated. Beginning in about 36 hours, colder ocean temperatures, a more stable environment, and less divergence aloft should cause the storm to weaken. Some of the models differ significantly on exactly how quick that weakening will be. For example, the GFS maintains tropical-storm-force winds for at least the next 3 days, while the ECWMF degenerates Ivo into a remnant low in about 24 hours. As a compromise, the NHC forecast shows Ivo becoming post-tropical by 60 hours, with dissipation by day 5, if not sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 20.7N 110.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 21.1N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 21.3N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 21.3N 114.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 21.5N 116.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 21.9N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 11/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
