Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 261433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 800 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 2025 Conventional satellite imagery and a recent GPM/GMI microwave pass indicate that Juliette has become better organized during the past few hours. Deep convection has increased near and to the east of the surface center, and the GPM image revealed an impressive tightly curved band wrapping around the center from the southwest. Based on the cyclone's improved cloud pattern and the subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 60 kt. Although not explicitly shown in the NHC forecast, there's still a possibility that Juliette could briefly become a hurricane later today, and a couple of the hurricane models are indicating this as well. By Wednesday, however, a weakening trend is expected while Juliette traverses progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures and moves into a more inhibiting surrounding thermodynamic environment. Juliette is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by Thursday night and open into a trough over the weekend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and resembles the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/9 kt along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast. A slower north-northwestward motion is expected late Wednesday in response to a growing weakness in the aforementioned subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nudged a bit to the left of the previous one and is close to the Google DeepMind ensemble and ECMWF deterministic models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 20.1N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 21.6N 119.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 22.9N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 24.0N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 24.8N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1200Z 25.6N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
