Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311436 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Sun Aug 31 2025 Satellite imagery and a recent AMSR2 pass show a curved band wrapping around the western semicircle of the cyclone, along with a burst of deep convection developing over the center where cloud tops are near -80 C. The convective banding now wraps more than halfway around the circulation, which, along with Dvorak current intensity estimates of 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and up to 3.0/45 kt from SAB, supports upgrading the system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an initial intensity of 35 kt. Kiko is moving westward near 8 kt, or 270/8 kt, steered by a strong subtropical ridge positioned to its north. This ridge is expected to remain in place throughout the 5-day forecast period, maintaining a general westward motion across the eastern Pacific and into the central Pacific basin by late this week. The official track forecast is nearly identical to the previous forecast and remains close to the consensus aids. Environmental conditions of warm sea surface temperatures, moist mid-level air, and low vertical wind shear favor steady strengthening during the next couple of days. Kiko is forecast to reach hurricane intensity by around 48 hours (Tuesday). Thereafter, the cyclone’s track near the 26 C isotherm, along with the potential entrainment of mid-level dry air, could limit any additional significant intensification. Also, any deviation of the track slightly to the right of the forecast path could place the system over cooler waters and further inhibit strengthening. The intensity forecast is near the middle to higher end of the guidance envelope through midweek, then trends closer to the consensus thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 14.4N 123.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 14.5N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 14.4N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 14.3N 127.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 14.2N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 14.2N 131.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 14.1N 133.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 14.2N 137.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 14.2N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
