Issued at 500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011437 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 500 AM HST Mon Sep 01 2025 Kiko has intensified overnight and remains a compact storm. A timely GMI microwave pass revealed a closed cyan ring around the center in the 37-GHz image. The system’s compact size and improving core structure suggest that the inner core is consolidating, which often precedes rapid intensification. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB are 3.0/45 kt and from SAB are 4.0/64 kt, while objective estimates have increased into the 40–50 kt range. Given this range of data and the improving satellite presentation, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt for this advisory. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt, steered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to the north. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours, followed by a more westward track through about 72 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone should gradually begin to turn toward the west-northwest as it crosses into the central Pacific basin between days 4 and 5 due to a potential weakness in the subtropical ridge far north of the Hawaiian Islands. While the overall synoptic pattern is consistent, there remains considerable spread in along-track speed among the models. The NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and continues to lean heavily on a blend of the HCCA and EMXI aids, which are near the faster side of the guidance envelope. Despite somewhat drier mid-level conditions along its forecast track, the combination of light vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and Kiko’s small compact core should allow for strengthening in the short term. Rapid intensification probabilities from the SHIPS guidance have increased over the past 24 hours, with around a 30–40 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24 hours. As a result, the official forecast reflects the potential for this during the first 24 hours, placing the intensity near the upper end of the guidance envelope during that period. Kiko’s intensity is forecast to peak near 85 kt in about 48 hours and then hold steady through day 5, which is near the middle to upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 14.0N 126.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 127.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 13.6N 128.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 13.5N 130.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 13.6N 133.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 13.7N 135.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 14.0N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 14.8N 141.7W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
