Issued at 800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151435 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 800 AM MST Mon Sep 15 2025 Satellite images show that Mario has changed little since the previous advisory, though recently the deep convection has been bursting near the center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates remain near 45 kt, with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS generally a little higher. Thus, the current intensity will remain 50 kt for this advisory. Mario is moving west-northwestward, or 300 degrees, at 10 kt. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and a mid-level low to its northwest. The biggest question is what happens to the remnants of Mario in a few days, with the models in poor agreement on whether it turns more to the north, like the GFS, or towards the west, like the HWRF or GDMI. For now, the official forecast will stay closer to the westernmost model cluster and assume the weak cyclone doesn't feel stronger mid-level southerly flow. The new forecast is a touch to the right of the previous one. The storm has a limited window for any strengthening within light shear conditions and warm waters. However, there are plenty of stable stratocumulus clouds on satellite just northwest of the circulation, suggesting it doesn't have much time left for intensification. By Tuesday, Mario should begin to weaken as it crosses over much cooler waters with higher shear. Mario should lose all deep convection after 36h and become a remnant low by 48h. The new NHC forecast prediction is slightly decreased from the last one and ends up pretty close to the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 20.0N 113.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 20.8N 114.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 24.7N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z 26.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake/Putnam
