Issued at 900 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221432 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142025 900 AM CST Mon Sep 22 2025 Narda is slowly strengthening just off the coast of southern Mexico. The storm has been maintaining a small area of central convection and a larger area of thunderstorms well west-northwest of the center. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 55 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is nudged up to 45 kt. Some of the outer bands are affecting portions of the coast of Mexico, and could result in locally heavy rains and gusty winds. The storm is estimated to be moving west-northwestward at 11 kt. A general westward motion, away from Mexico, is expected through the week as the storm is primarily steered by a strong subtropical high pressure system to its north. By the weekend, a slight turn to the west-northwest is predicted. The models are in fair agreement, but there are notable differences in the predicted forward speed, especially from days 3 to 5. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, giving more weight to the Google Deep Mind model. The environmental conditions appear generally conducive for the system to strengthen with the wind shear expected to be light to moderate while it moves within a moist airmass over warm SSTs. Narda is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow and will likely continue to strengthen over the next few days. The system is forecast to move into a more stable environment and over cool waters late in the week, and that should induce a gradual decay. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance, in best agreement with the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 15.7N 102.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 16.1N 104.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 16.3N 106.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 16.2N 109.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 16.0N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 16.5N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 17.7N 124.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
