Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 021438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 02 2025 Octave continues to be affected by strong easterly vertical wind shear associated with an upper-level anticyclone to its northeast. The cloud pattern has not changed much in organization, with some limited convective banding features over the southern and western portions of the circulation. Upper-tropospheric outflow continues to be impeded to the east of the cyclone. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 55 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Objective values from UW-CIMSS range from 49 to 54 kt at this time. The system is moving west-northwestward at around 285/7 kt. Octave is currently being steered by the flow on the southern perimeter of a mid-level ridge. This ridge is predicted to weaken over the next few days, which should cause the system to slow and turn northward in around 72 hours. A generally eastward motion is expected by the end of the forecast period, as Octave becomes drawn into the larger circulation of a developing tropical cyclone off the southwest coast of Mexico. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected dynamical consensus model, HCCA, track. Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear over Octave will abate in a few days while the system traverses marginally warm ocean waters. Thus, there is a relatively small window of opportunity for strengthening later in the forecast period. This is also shown in the official intensity forecast, which is at the high end of the model guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 12.5N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 12.8N 119.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 13.3N 120.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 13.8N 121.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 14.4N 123.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 15.0N 123.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 15.3N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 15.9N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
