Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 041444 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 04 2025 Octave's overall appearance has remained steady this morning, with its center embedded within a large area of persistent deep convection. A recent AMSR-2 microwave pass also indicates that the tropical storm is maintaining a well-organized structure, with curved bands apparent in the microwave imagery. A blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and the persistence of deep convection throughout the morning, support a slight increase in the intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. The storm is moving northwestward with an estimated motion of 310/6 kt. This motion is expected to continue today before beginning a northward and eventually eastward turn later this weekend and early next week. The precise timing of the eastward turn is somewhat uncertain, as it depends on the interaction of Octave with Invest 99E to its east and a trough to its north. The NHC track forecast for this advisory is similar to the prior advisory and represents a blend of track consensus aids and the faster Google DeepMind solution. Vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak for the next 24 h. Within this narrow window of time, conditions are forecast to remain marginally favorable for some slight intensification. However, after 24 h as Octave turns toward the east, wind shear is expected to increase as the storm interacts with the much larger system to its east. Late this weekend, Octave is forecast to begin a weakening trend that will continue throughout the forecast period. The current NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the prior advisory during the next day or so, and it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 14.6N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.5N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 15.9N 123.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 16.0N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 16.0N 121.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 15.7N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 15.2N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 16.2N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Hogsett
