Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 08 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081441 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 08 2025 Convection has increased with Octave over the past few hours, mainly in the southwest quadrant, as strong east-northeasterly wind shear, partially due to the outflow from Priscilla, continues to affect the cyclone. In fact, the SHIPS guidance is diagnosing 30 to 35 kt of shear currently. GOES-W imagery indicates that the low-level center is near the northeastern edge of this convective mass, and recent AMSR2 and GPM microwave passes confirm this structure. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB range from 30-45 kt, while UW-CIMSS objective estimates range from 32-41 kt. Since the aforementioned increase in convection is recent, the intensity for this advisory is held at 35 kt. The initial motion is toward the east, or 080 degrees, at 10 kt. A turn to the east-northeast is expected soon, followed by a gradual northeastward turn tonight as Octave moves south of Priscilla and near another developing system (EP90) to its southeast, located near the southern coast of Mexico. The forecast track is similar to the previous NHC advisory and lies near the various consensus aids. Easterly shear over 30 kt is expected to continue along the storm's path through Thursday. Octave could maintain its intensity for another 12 h due to its motion in the same direction as the shear vector and the current ongoing convective burst. However, all global models are in agreement that Octave will no longer have a closed circulation by hour 36. It's possible that the circulation could dissipate sooner than that. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest that Octave could lose its convection and become a remnant low in about 24 h. Regardless, Octave is unlikely to still be a tropical cyclone on Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 15.4N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.2N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
