Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 01 2025
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 011452 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152025 800 AM PDT Wed Oct 01 2025 Octave's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the past few hours. A convective band wraps around the southern and eastern portion of the circulation with a banding feature also noted over the western semicircle. The advisory intensity is set at 55 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Objective Dvorak and microwave estimates from UW-CIMSS are a little lower than that value. The cyclone is moving generally northwestward, or around 325/7 kt. A west-northwestward track is likely during the next day or so, along the southern side of a subtropical high pressure area. Later in the forecast period, a turn to the north into a weakness in the subtropical ridge is expected. Around day 5, Octave is forecast to turn eastward in response to a trough off the California coast. The official forecast is close to the latest track model consensus. The system should remain over marginally warm waters and in a moist mid- to low-level environment for the next several days. Easterly vertical wind shear could relax somewhat in 2-3 days, which would allow for some strengthening, and the system could eventually become a hurricane. However, the small size of the cyclone suggests that it could also be more responsive to less conducive conditions in the future environment. The official intensity forecast is conservative and lies more or less in the middle to upper portion of the model guidance, which continues to show considerable spread. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 11.6N 115.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 12.1N 116.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 12.6N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 13.1N 118.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 13.7N 120.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 14.2N 121.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 14.9N 122.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 15.9N 123.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 16.5N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
