Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 101442 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Priscilla Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162025 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Satellite imagery shows that the convective structure of Priscilla has become more ragged this morning. The degradation is due to increasing southwesterly wind shear, and drier air, as seen on water vapor imagery, being advected into the system. Satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt. Using these estimates, in combination with the scatterometer data overnight, and recent satellite presentation, the intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Priscilla is moving slowly northward at an estimated motion of 360/5 kt. This general motion with a slight turn to the north-northeast is anticipated today and tonight. The latest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous. Although Priscilla has been resilient, it seems to be succumbing to the unfavorable environment. Moderate to strong southwesterly shear of 20 to 30 kt, with drier mid-level air being advected into the circulation and cool sea surface temperatures should induce further weakening. Convection is already started to dissipate and global models show that the system will struggle to produce convection by tonight and open into a trough by Saturday. The new NHC intensity forecast follows these trends with the system expected to become post-tropical in 12h, and then dissipate by 24h. Remnant moisture associated with Priscilla remains the primary hazard across portions of southwestern United States. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are likely into the weekend over parts of central Arizona and southwest Utah, with scattered areas of flash flooding possible across the remainder of Arizona, southern Utah, southwestern Colorado, and far northwestern New Mexico. Please monitor forecasts and updates from local National Weather Service offices in the southwest U.S. at weather.gov and from the Weather Prediction Center at wpc.ncep.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 25.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.5N 115.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
