Issued at 800 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 111439 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172025 800 AM MST Sat Oct 11 2025 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Raymond has continued to deteriorate, rather rapidly, with barely any convection near the center of the system. The overall circulation has become rather ragged, and first-light visible imagery shows that the system was further south and east than expected. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have come down due to the waning convection, ranging between 30 and 35 kt. Given the recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory. The storm is now moving north-northwest at an estimated motion of 330/13 kt. A turn towards the north is expected later today as the system rounds the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast track is near the previous one, although slightly to the right given the initial position adjustment. Raymond will continue to deal with moderate wind shear, and a drier more stable airmass throughout the forecast period. The system is expected to continue to weaken during the next day or so. GFS simulated IR shows that the center of Raymond may not regain convection. The latest NHC forecast is for additional weakening, and for the system to become post-tropical in about a day and dissipating shortly after, although if latest trends continue this could occur sooner than forecast. Although the actual system may not survive beyond a day or so, moisture associated with the larger envelope from Raymond will support heavy rainfall into portions of northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States this weekend through early next week. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Baja California Sur beginning in the next few hours. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Raymond will impact sections of northwestern Mexico through Sunday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. Moisture from Raymond will bring the threat of additional heavy rains to portions of the Southwest U.S. Sunday into early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 21.5N 109.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 23.6N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/1200Z 26.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
