Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025
103 WTPZ43 KNHC 271435 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 800 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Satellite images show that the low-level center is exposed, with southerly wind shear causing convection to be displaced to the north. Satellite intensity estimates range between 35 to 45 kt, thus the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. The system looks to have turned back towards the west at an estimated motion of 275/6 kt. This general motion should continue as the system weakens and becomes more shallow, and steered by the low-level wind flow. The NHC track was nudged slightly south towards the HCCA corrected consensus and Google DeepMind solution. Sonia is moving into an increasingly unfavorable environment. Wind shear is expected to increase, with cooling SSTs, and drier air along the forecast track. This should lead to a gradual weakening trend, and model simulated IR satellite shows convection diminishing by Tuesday. The latest NHC forecast follows these trends with the system becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 36 h. The system is forecast to dissipate and open into a trough in two to three days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 13.8N 121.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 14.1N 123.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 14.2N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/1200Z 14.2N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z 14.0N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
