Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025
388 WTPZ43 KNHC 251451 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182025 800 AM PDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Sonia appears to be strengthening this morning. While it has been difficult to pinpoint Sonia's center, it appears to be well embedded within the central dense overcast. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and various objective intensity techniques from UW-CIMSS have also increased with a mean value near 45 kt, so that is initial intensity for this advisory. Given the higher initial intensity, the intensity forecast for Sonia has also increased a little, and now shows the cyclone could approach hurricane strength tomorrow. Several models now show Sonia becoming a hurricane late this weekend. The new NHC intensity forecast is just below the model consensus, so an additional upward adjustment could be necessary in the next advisory. Beyond 2 days, Sonia is still expected to gradually weaken as a result of increasing shear and drier mid-level air wrapping into its circulation. Models still indicate that Sonia will lose its deep convection by day 4, and it will likely degenerate into a trough by the end of the forecast period. Sonia has continued moving generally west. No substantial changes to the official track forecast were made aside from a slight northward tweak to account for the latest initial position of the tropical storm. In general, the tropical storm should keep on its current heading today, then slow and turn northwestward on Sunday. By the middle of next week, Sonia should turn back westward as it weakens and becomes steered by low-level flow. The spread in the model guidance is unusually high, so uncertainty in the track is slightly higher than normal, but the NHC forecast is still based on a blend of HCCA and GDM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 13.5N 118.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 13.6N 118.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 13.7N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 13.9N 120.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 14.4N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 14.9N 122.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 15.2N 123.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 15.0N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
